The domino theory ran like this: McLaren, now reported as favourites to land Max Verstappen, would free up the seat by sending Oscar Piastri to Red Bull as its clear number one. At Spa, Piastri declined to play his part.
Asked directly ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix whether he would stay at McLaren in 2027, Piastri answered simply: "Yes." His manager, Mark Webber, was firmer still, stating that "Oscar is contracted to McLaren for the foreseeable future." Reports have noted Piastri's own deal carries a performance-related release, but sixth in the championship and a race-winning car are not the circumstances in which a driver forces his way out.
Verstappen, for his part, kept it characteristically short when the subject came up: "There's nothing to say from my side." The market's biggest questions remain open — but one of its neatest scenarios just lost its supporting act.