Round 10 of the 2026 season is Kimi Antonelli's to lose. The championship leader starts Sunday's 44-lap Belgian Grand Prix from pole, 25 points clear of team-mate George Russell and with the two Ferraris stuck on row three. On paper, it is the ideal position from which to rebuild the cushion Silverstone cost him.
Spa complicates every paper plan. The 7.004km circuit is the longest of the year, its slipstreaming straights make track position fragile, and the Ardennes weather can turn a dry line greasy in a lap. A forecast that flirted with thundery showers across the weekend is expected to leave race day dry, but Spa has broken cleaner-looking scripts than this one.
Behind Antonelli, the race sets up as a genuine four-team fight: Verstappen alongside him on the front row, Norris and Russell on row two, Leclerc and Hamilton hunting from fifth and sixth. Antonelli holds the best card. Now he has to play it over 44 laps of the sport's most unforgiving track.